Statistics

2312 Submissions

[2] viXra:2312.0089 [pdf] submitted on 2023-12-17 14:49:03

The Excess Mortality is Strongly Underestimated

Authors: Hans Lugtigheid
Comments: 15 Pages.

This article analyses the conjecture that excess mortality is underestimated with the pandemic.I use the numbers from the CBS (Dutch Central Bureau for Statistics) as an example. As a baseline we take the expected mortality for 2021 and 2022 from 2019. I correct this expected mortality with the estimated number of people who died in earlier years than expected because of the pandemic. For 2021 this correction is 8K. The CBS expects the mortality to be almost equal to the estimate from 2019. Then the excess mortality increases from 16K (CBS) to 24K.I present the following idea to explain the difference. At the beginning of very year the numbers of people in year groups are usually adjusted by applying a historical determined percentage to the population at January first. Covid hits the weakest the hardest. This changes the distribution of the expected remaining life years in the year group. And thus the average expected remaining life years. Hence the percentage has to be adjusted. Then the expected mortality decreases and the excess mortality increases.The excess mortality within a year are people who for example died in April from covid but who would have died in October without the pandemic. With this number total excess mortality rises with 6K to 30K.Excess mortality is divided in covid and non-covid. De large increase in non-covid deaths is striking.The analysis supports the conjecture that excess mortality is underestimated.Note: The numbers in this article are for the Netherlands. For you own country use the appropriate numbers.
Category: Statistics

[1] viXra:2312.0088 [pdf] submitted on 2023-12-17 23:25:17

Expected Mortality: Adjustment for Distribution in Age-Groups

Authors: Hans Lugtigheid
Comments: 4 Pages.

This article discusses the influence of a disturbance like covid on the calculation of life expectancy in year groups etcetera. Life expectancies in year-groups are usually adjusted in the beginning of the year based on the population in the beginning of the year. This is done with a percentage based on previous years. This percentage is a reflection of volume. With the pandemic the weak were hit heavily by covid. A consequence is that the distribution of life expectancy changes in the year groups. This increases the life expectancy and decreases the expected mortality in the year group. Then the calculation for the year groups has to be adjusted accordingly. In this article I give an example of such adjustment. One can accordingly adjust likewise statistics.
Category: Statistics