Statistics

2006 Submissions

[2] viXra:2006.0023 [pdf] submitted on 2020-06-03 09:40:46

Causal Inference for COVID-19 Interventions

Authors: Vikas Ramachandra
Comments: 14 Pages.

The exponential spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has caused countries to impose drastic measures on the public including social distancing, movement restrictions and lockdowns. These government interventions have led to different mobility patterns for the populations. We propose a method of causal inference using community mobility datasets to determine the treatment effects of government interventions on population mobility related outcomes. We first identify the changepoint based on the data of government interventions. We also perform changepoint detection to verify that there is indeed a changepoint at the time of intervention. Then we estimate the mobility trends using a Bayesian structural causal model and project the counterfactual. This is compared to the actual values after interventions to give the treatment effect of interventions. As a specific example, we analyze mobility trends in India before and after interventions. Our analysis shows that there are significant changes in mobility due to government interventions. Our paper aims to provide insights into changes in response to government measures and we hope that it is helpful to those making critical decisions to combat COVID-19.
Category: Statistics

[1] viXra:2006.0014 [pdf] submitted on 2020-06-01 12:18:06

Conditio Sine Qua Non

Authors: Ilija Barukčić
Comments: 27 pages. (C) Ilija Barukčić, 2020, Jever, Germany. All rights reserved.

Aims: Different processes or events which are objectively given and real are equally one of the foundations of human life (necessary conditions) too. However, a generally accepted, logically consistent (bio)-mathematical description of these natural processes is still not in sight. Methods: Discrete random variables are analysed. Results: The mathematical formula of the necessary condition is developed. The impact of study design on the results of a study is considered. Conclusion: Study data can be analysed for necessary conditions.
Category: Statistics