Statistics

Modeling and Projecting Offensive Value Using Combined Hit-Tracking and Speed Measurements

Authors: Glenn Healey
Comments: 20 Pages.

Outcome-based statistics for representing batter and pitcher skill have been shown to have a low degree of repeatability due to the effects of multiple confounding variables such as the defense, weather, and ballpark. Statistics derived from pitch and hit-tracking data acquired by the Statcast system have been shown to provide greater repeatability and predictive value than outcome-based statistics. The wOBA cube representation uses three-dimensional hit-tracking data to compute intrinsic batted ball statistics for batters and pitchers. While providing more reliable measures than outcome-based statistics, this representation also revealed that running speed is an important determinant of batter success. We address this issue by building a four-dimensional model for a batted ball's value as a function of its physical contact parameters and the batter's time-to-first speed.
Category: Statistics