Quantitative Biology

Research Into Potential Therapies Against COVID-19, With Focus On Ivermectin

Authors: Reza Rezaie Khanghah
Comments: 73 Pages.

Purpose: Ivermectin is a broad-spectrum antiparasitic and an effective drug to treat COVID-19. In this article, we looked at the effects of ivermectin on coronavirus and its patients in three ways. We have discussed and organized other previously discovered potential therapies and reviewed them in Table 2 and in the last section. Methods: We searched for articles on MedRxiv, PubMed, Google Scholar, MEDLINE, EMBASE uses the appropriate search terms. ClinicalTrials.gov was searched for available clinical trials evaluating the effectiveness of ivermectin. We also use EU clinical trial registry data and ANZ registry data for clinical trials. Also, we performed our methods in 4 stages: Identifying studies, Selection of Studies, Collating Studies, Reporting results.Results: Results are variable. Some studies have shown the effectiveness of ivermectin, others have not. Furthermore, some studies show that a combination of ivermectin with other drugs is useful. Conclusion: Overall, we believe the reason ivermectin is useful is that it goes back to its origin, which is soil. Our theory and hypothesis is that if the coronavirus, created by man or by nature, can generally be treated with nature, that is, the soil. The interesting thing is that today we know that ivermectin is effective in the fight against the coronavirus. In fact, other drugs like teicoplanin, cyclosporine and rapamycin that are effective against the coronavirus have come from the soil. We hope that this article has been able to take a step in finding a corona drug, InshaAllah.
Category: Quantitative Biology

Covid-Period Mass Vaccination Campaign and Public Health Disaster in the Usa from Age/state-Resolved All-Cause Mortality by Time, Age-Resolved Vaccine Delivery by Time, and Socio-Geo-Economic Data

Authors: Denis Rancourt, Marine Baudin, Jeremie Mercier
Comments: 167 Pages.

All-cause mortality by time is the most reliable data for detecting and epidemiologically characterizing events causing death, and for gauging the population-level impact of any surge or collapse in deaths from any cause. Such data is not susceptible to reporting bias or to any bias in attributing causes of death. We compare USA all-cause mortality by time (month, week), by age group and by state to number of vaccinated individuals by time (week), by injection sequence, by age group and by state, using consolidated data up to week-5 of 2022 (week ending on February 5, 2022), in order to detect temporal associations, which would imply beneficial or deleterious effects from the vaccination campaign. We also quantify total excess all-cause mortality (relative to historic trends) for the entire covid period (WHO 11 March 2020 announcement of a pandemic through week-5 of 2022, corresponding to a total of 100 weeks), for the covid period prior to the bulk of vaccine delivery (first 50 weeks of the defined 100-week covid period), and for the covid period when the bulk of vaccine delivery is accomplished (last 50 weeks of the defined 100-week covid period); by age group and by state.We find that the COVID-19 vaccination campaign did not reduce all-cause mortality during the covid period. No deaths, within the resolution of all cause mortality, can be said to have been averted due to vaccination in the USA. The mass vaccination campaign was not justified in terms of reducing excess all-cause mortality. The large excess mortality of the covid period, far above the historic trend, was maintained throughout the entire covid period irrespective of the unprecedented vaccination campaign, and is very strongly correlated (r = +0.86) to poverty, by state; in fact, proportional to poverty. It is also correlated to several other socio-economic and health factors, by state, but not correlated to population fractions (65+, 75+, 85+ years) of elderly state residents.The excess all-cause mortality by age group (also expressed as percentage of pre-covid-period all-cause mortality for the age group) for the whole USA for the entire covid period through week-5 of 2022 is: all ages1.27M23%0-2413K12%25-44109K41%45-64274K27%65-74319K30%75-84316K24%85+240K14%

The corresponding fatality risk ratios are relatively uniform with age (non-exponential and non-near-exponential with age; and even skewed towards young adults), which holds essentially for all states, and for all examined periods within the covid period. This fundamental result implies that a dominant cause of excess mortality could not have been assigned COVID 19, which consistently has been measured to have a strong near-exponential infection fatality ratio with age. The implication is further corroborated by the absence of correlation between all-age-group-integrated excess mortality and age, by state. COVID-19 was not a dominant cause of excess mortality during the covid period in the USA.All of our observations can be coherently understood if we interpret that the covid-period socio-economic, regulatory and institutional conditions induced chronic stress and social isolation among members of large vulnerable groups (individuals afflicted and co-afflicted by poverty, obesity, diabetes, high susceptibility to bacterial respiratory infection [inferred from pre-covid-period antibiotic prescription rates], old age, societal exclusion, unemployment, drug and substance abuse, and mental disability or serious mental illness), which in turn caused many of these individuals to be more and fatally immunocompromised, allowing them to succumb to bacterial pneumonia, at a time when a documented national pneumonia epidemic raged and antibiotic prescriptions were systemically reduced; in addition to possible comorbidity from COVID-19 vaccine challenge against individuals thus made immunocompromised, under broad and hastily implemented "vaccine equity" programs.
Category: Quantitative Biology