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| viXra.org > Economics and Finance > 2505 |
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[2] viXra:2505.0153 [pdf] submitted on 2025-05-22 20:32:44
Authors: Andrea Berdondini
Comments: 8 Pages. (Note by viXra Admin: Please submit article written with AI assistance to ai.viXra.org)
A trading strategy represents a forecasting model and a forecasting model will generate profits in the future if it has demonstrated in the past that it can predict with a good probability of success the evolutions of the system on which it operates. Since the theory is so simple, why is it so difficult to evaluate a trading strategy? The reason is the following: in finance, we think we see the evolutions of the system but we are only observing the random component due to unpredictable events. Instead, the deterministic component that represents the true evolution of the system is not visible. Unfortunately, not seeing the deterministic component leads to a very important statistical problem: if I execute if 10 winning predictions, I do not know if these operations concern 10 evolutions of the system or concern only one evolution of the system. Therefore, I do not know, if my forecasting algorithm acted intelligently by predicting 10 different evolutions or if it acted irrationally by dividing a bet into 10 smaller ones on the same evolution. Distinguishing between these two scenarios is essential to correctly evaluate the trading strategy and this discrimination can be done by understanding whether the trades are independent of each other. In fact, the condition of independence is the only statistical way to be sure that the trades concern forecasts of different evolutions. The Binomial evolution function solves this problem by transforming the succession of trades into a succession of independent results.
Category: Economics and Finance
[1] viXra:2505.0130 [pdf] submitted on 2025-05-20 19:49:44
Authors: Gaurav Biraris
Comments: 10 Pages.
This paper facilitates a generic framework for carbon based public financing, which can be used by governments. Any government can make efficient journey towards the carbon neutrality goal by integrating this framework with fiscal policy & budgeting. MOD17A2HGF v061 dataset provides net photosynthesis (PsnNet_500m) value for each 500m pixel on earth. Our idea is to compute net CO2 fixation in each sub-territory. On other hand, net CO2 emissions can be estimated in the sub-territories through traditional methods. Local carbon index (LCI) for each sub-territory w.r.t. territory of the government can be calculated from the fixation & emission in each sub-territory. LCI can be coupled with fiscal incentives or dis-incentives.
Category: Economics and Finance
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