Climate Research

A Simple Macroscopic Model of Ice Sheet Dissolution

Authors: Zhi Cheng, Jun Luo
Comments: 43 Pages. Considering that the impact of rising sea levels on China is huge, a Chinese version is also provided in this article for Chinese readers to read.

This paper explores the impact of rising global temperature on the melting of ice floes and ice sheets in the Arctic Ocean, Greenland and Antarctic. This paper notes that the current understanding of the impact of climate change on Arctic, Greenland and Antarctic ice floes and ice sheets may be significantly underestimated. First, this paper analyzes the relationship between global temperature change and Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) rise after the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The current rate of global temperature rise is now 10 times faster than after the end of the LGM. This also means that the current rate of GMSL rise will also be likely to be 10 times faster than the rate of GMSL rise at that time. In order to better and accurately analyze the relationship between global temperature rise and GMSL rise, a simple macro model of ice sheet dissolution is established. In this model, we believe that the main cause of the dissolution of the ice sheet is the convective heat transfer from the air. Due to the presence of huge glacial lakes in Greenland and Antarctica, most of the meltwater from the ice sheet is temporarily stored in these glacial lakes. If global temperatures continue to rise, these glacial lakes could cause dam failures and cause catastrophe. We used this model to estimate the rate of dissolution of ice floe in the Arctic Ocean, and the estimates were in good agreement with the actual observations. We then used this model to estimate the rate of dissolution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Estimates suggest that the risk of significant GMSL rise and dam failure of glacial lakes is very high in the coming decades.
Category: Climate Research