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[3] viXra:1108.0032 [pdf] submitted on 22 Aug 2011
Authors: David R.B. Stockwell
Comments: 9 pages.
Here we present three key pieces of empirical evidence for a solar origin of recent and paleoclimate global temperature change, caused by amplification of forcings over time by the accumulation of heat in the ocean. Firstly, variations in global temperature at all time scales are more correlated with the accumulated solar anomaly than with
direct solar radiation. Secondly, accumulated solar anomaly and
sunspot count fits the global temperature from 1900, including the rapid increase in temperature since 1950, and the flat temperature
since the turn of the century. The third, crucial piece of evidence
is a 90$^{\circ}$ shift in the phase of the response of temperature to the 11 year solar cycle. These results, together with previous physical justifications, show that the accumulation of solar anomaly is a viable explanation for climate change without recourse to changes in heat-trapping greenhouse gasses.
Category: Climate Research
[2] viXra:1108.0020 [pdf] submitted on 9 Aug 2011
Authors: David R.B. Stockwell
Comments: 24 pages
Global temperature (GT) changes over the 20th century and
glacial-interglacial periods are commonly thought to be dominated by
feedbacks, with relatively small direct effects from variation of
solar insolation. Here is presented a novel empirical and
physically-based auto-regressive AR(1) model, where temperature
response is the integral of the magnitude of solar forcing over its
duration, and amplification increases with depth in the
atmospheric/ocean system. The model explains 76% of the variation in
GT from the 1950s by solar heating at a rate of $0.06\pm 0.03K
W^{-1}m^{-2}Yr^{-1}$ relative to the solar constant of $1366Wm^{-2}$.
Miss-specification of long-equilibrium dynamics by empirical fitting
methods (as shown by poor performance on simulated time series) and
atmospheric forcing assumptions have likely resulted in
underestimation of solar influence. The solar accumulation model is
proposed as a credible mechanism for explaining both paleoclimatic
temperature variability and present-day warming through high
sensitivity to solar irradiance anomaly.
Category: Climate Research
[1] viXra:1108.0004 [pdf] submitted on 1 Aug 2011
Authors: David R.B. Stockwell
Comments: 55 pages
In this alternative theory of global temperature dynamics over the annual
to the glacial time scales, the accumulation of variations in solar irradiance dominates
the dynamics of global temperature change.
A straightforward recurrence matrix representation of the atmosphere/surface/deep ocean
system, models temperature changes by
(1) the size of a forcing, (2) its duration (due to accumulation of heat), and (3) the
depth of forcing in the atmosphere/surface/deep ocean system (due to increasing mixing
losses and increasing intrinsic gain with depth). The model can explain most of the rise
in temperature since 1950, and more than 70\% of the variance with correct phase shift of
the 11-year solar cycle. Global temperature displays the characteristics of an accumulative
system over 6 temporal orders of magnitude, as shown by a linear $f^{-1}$ log-log relationship
of frequency to the temperature range, and other statistical relationships such as near
random-walk and distribution asymmetry. Over the last century, annual global surface
temperature rises or falls $0.063\pm 0.028C/W/m^2$ per year when solar irradiance is
greater or less than an equilibrium value of $1366W/m^2$ at top-of-atmosphere. Due to an
extremely slow characteristic time scale the notion of 'equilibrium climate sensitivity'
is largely superfluous. The theory does not require a range of distinctive feedback and
lag parameters. Mixing losses attenuate the effectiveness of greenhouse gasses, and the
amplification of solar variations by slow accumulation of heat dominates the dynamics of
global temperature at all time-scales.
Category: Climate Research
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