A Systematic Analysis of Soccer Forecast Models and Prediction Leagues

Authors: Malte Braband

This paper analyses the question how to systematically reach the top flight of soccer prediction leagues. In a first step several forecast models are compared and it is shown how most models can be related to the Poisson model. Some of the relations are new. Additionally a method has been developed which allows to numerically evaluate the outcome probabilities of soccer championships instead of simulation. The main practical result for the example of the 2014 soccer World Championship was that the forecast models were significantly better than the human participants of a large public prediction league. However the results between the forecast models were small, both qualitatively and quantitatively. But it is quite unlikely that a large prediction league will be won by a forecast model although the forecast models almost all belonged to the top flight of the prediction league.

Comments: 16 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables, in German. Jugend Forscht project 130423.

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[v1] 2017-03-05 02:04:12

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