Climate Research


Failure Evidence for All 21 Ipcc Positive-Feedback Climate Models

Authors: Nigel B. Cook

NASA incorrectly claims that any cosmic radiation increases deliver energy directly and cause temperature rises. Because this does not happen (the opposite occurs, see Fig. 5), NASA claims that cosmic radiation does not have any effect on climate. However, increases in cosmic radiation increase high altitude cloud cover by the “Wilson cloud chamber” effect (well proved in nuclear physics), and so have a cooling effect on the earth’s climate by increasing Earth’s albedo. This mechanism is justified by a correlation between temperature and the inverse of the cosmic ray intensity (Fig. 5). The only reason why significant CO2 related temperature rises are predicted by all 21 IPCC climate models is that they all contain the same error: assuming that water vapour absorbs sunlight to amplify the CO2 injection by positive feedback, ignoring the fact that it would gain buoyancy, rise and condense into cloud cover. It is easy to prove that any net positive feedback by water vapour (which all IPCC positive feedback climate models assume) would have boiled the oceans off long ago and would have prevented human life from evolving. Since H2O vapour is a greenhouse gas 26 times more powerful in the atmosphere than CO2, it follows that the atmosphere did not need to wait for human CO2 emissions before H2O kicked in. Water positive feedback would have kicked in and endlessly accelerated of its own accord millions of years ago, if it were positive. Whenever the rate of increase of a variable is proportional to that variable, you get self-feedback, thus an exponential rise in that variable. Positive feedback on temperature T implies the rate of rise of temperature, dT/dt, is proportional to temperature, T. Hence dT/dt = cT, where c is a constant. Thus: (1/T)dT = c dt. Integrating gives ln T = ct. Making both sides powers of e (base of natural logs) then gets rid of the natural logarithm, yielding T ~ exp(ct). Thus, net positive feedback leads to an exponential temperature rise. This error in all 21 IPCC climate models is not an opinion, or speculation, but a fact of physics, robustly confirmed by evidence. The temperature, if positive feedback were true, would have boiled off the oceans hundreds of millions of years ago in a runaway greenhouse effect like that on Venus. Water does not have positive feedback.

Comments: 8 Pages. Version 2.

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Submission history

[v1] 2013-02-07 11:06:26
[v2] 2013-02-10 03:32:09

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