Social Science


Shifting the Balance of Global Economic Power: the Sinosphere in Ascension Towards Dominance

Authors: Sierra Rayne, Kaya Forest

The Sinosphere is in ascension towards global economic dominance on both total and per capita bases, marking a fundamental shift in the balance of global economic and military power that is taking place absent any robust structural democratic and human rights reforms in this region. In contrast to comparisons during the 1980s of Japan potentially overtaking the United States as the world's largest economy, both purchasing power parity (PPP) and current United States dollar GDP metrics consistently project that China's gross domestic product (GDP) will exceed that of the United States sometime between 2015 and 2020. The Sinosphere's GDP-PPP passed that of The Commonwealth (including India) in 2011, The Commonwealth (excluding India) in 2005, the Francosphere member states in 2003, the Francosphere member and observer states in 2009 - subsequently widening the gap in all cases - and is predicted to surpass that of the Anglosphere by the early 2020s. China's military spending now exceeds that of all other nations bordering the East and South China Seas combined and the gap is widening rapidly. At current rates of increase, China's military expenditures may surpass those of the United States within the next decade. On a per capita basis, China's GDP-PPP is expected to overtake that of the United States and Canada by the early to mid-2030s, whereas Russia and the EU are projected to be surpassed by China in per capita GDP-PPP by the late 2020s.

Comments: 8 Pages.

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Submission history

[v1] 2013-01-05 19:49:08

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