Climate Research


Hypothesis About Mechanics of Global Warming from 1900 Till Now.

Authors: Belolipetsky P.V., Bartsev S.I.

We performed linear multivariate regression analysis using available estimates of natural and anthropogenic influences and the observed surface temperature records from 1900 to 2012. We considered four parts of Earth surface - tropics (30S-30N), northern middle altitudes (30N-60N), Arctic (60N-75N) and southern altitudes (60S-30S). For each part (except southern altitudes) we developed very simple linear regression models representing temperature dynamics without continuous anthropogenic influence. The monthly average tropical SST temperature anomaly dynamic could be adequately reproduced by only three factors - ENSO variability (Nino 3.4 index), volcanic aerosols in stratosphere and two climate shifts in 1925/1926 and 1987/1988 years. Northern middle altitudes SST temperature anomaly could be reproduced in general by the same factors, except ENSO which is changed on Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) here. Continents in these parts have the same dynamic but with much more variability. Arctic temperature anomalies have in general the same dynamic as SST temperature anomalies of Atlantic ocean in northern middle altitudes (30N-60N). We didn't manage to build any adequate regression model for southern altitudes with or without anthropogenic influences, but it doesn't look like temperatures here are determined by continuous anthropogenic influence. The results enable us to suggest a quantitive hypothesis alternative to IPCC view about a mechanic of observed in past century climate change.

Comments: 14 Pages.

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Submission history

[v1] 2012-12-31 19:53:03

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