Climate Research


Accumulation of Solar Irradiance Anomaly as a Mechanism for Global Temperature Dynamics

Authors: David R.B. Stockwell

Global temperature (GT) changes over the 20th century and glacial-interglacial periods are commonly thought to be dominated by feedbacks, with relatively small direct effects from variation of solar insolation. Here is presented a novel empirical and physically-based auto-regressive AR(1) model, where temperature response is the integral of the magnitude of solar forcing over its duration, and amplification increases with depth in the atmospheric/ocean system. The model explains 76% of the variation in GT from the 1950s by solar heating at a rate of $0.06\pm 0.03K W^{-1}m^{-2}Yr^{-1}$ relative to the solar constant of $1366Wm^{-2}$. Miss-specification of long-equilibrium dynamics by empirical fitting methods (as shown by poor performance on simulated time series) and atmospheric forcing assumptions have likely resulted in underestimation of solar influence. The solar accumulation model is proposed as a credible mechanism for explaining both paleoclimatic temperature variability and present-day warming through high sensitivity to solar irradiance anomaly.

Comments: 24 pages

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Submission history

[v1] 9 Aug 2011

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