Climate Research

1108 Submissions

[3] viXra:1108.0032 [pdf] submitted on 22 Aug 2011

Key Evidence for the Accumulative Model of High Solar Influence on Global Temperature

Authors: David R.B. Stockwell
Comments: 9 pages.

Here we present three key pieces of empirical evidence for a solar origin of recent and paleoclimate global temperature change, caused by amplification of forcings over time by the accumulation of heat in the ocean. Firstly, variations in global temperature at all time scales are more correlated with the accumulated solar anomaly than with direct solar radiation. Secondly, accumulated solar anomaly and sunspot count fits the global temperature from 1900, including the rapid increase in temperature since 1950, and the flat temperature since the turn of the century. The third, crucial piece of evidence is a 90$^{\circ}$ shift in the phase of the response of temperature to the 11 year solar cycle. These results, together with previous physical justifications, show that the accumulation of solar anomaly is a viable explanation for climate change without recourse to changes in heat-trapping greenhouse gasses.
Category: Climate Research

[2] viXra:1108.0020 [pdf] submitted on 9 Aug 2011

Accumulation of Solar Irradiance Anomaly as a Mechanism for Global Temperature Dynamics

Authors: David R.B. Stockwell
Comments: 24 pages

Global temperature (GT) changes over the 20th century and glacial-interglacial periods are commonly thought to be dominated by feedbacks, with relatively small direct effects from variation of solar insolation. Here is presented a novel empirical and physically-based auto-regressive AR(1) model, where temperature response is the integral of the magnitude of solar forcing over its duration, and amplification increases with depth in the atmospheric/ocean system. The model explains 76% of the variation in GT from the 1950s by solar heating at a rate of $0.06\pm 0.03K W^{-1}m^{-2}Yr^{-1}$ relative to the solar constant of $1366Wm^{-2}$. Miss-specification of long-equilibrium dynamics by empirical fitting methods (as shown by poor performance on simulated time series) and atmospheric forcing assumptions have likely resulted in underestimation of solar influence. The solar accumulation model is proposed as a credible mechanism for explaining both paleoclimatic temperature variability and present-day warming through high sensitivity to solar irradiance anomaly.
Category: Climate Research

[1] viXra:1108.0004 [pdf] submitted on 1 Aug 2011

On the Dynamics of Global Temperature

Authors: David R.B. Stockwell
Comments: 55 pages

In this alternative theory of global temperature dynamics over the annual to the glacial time scales, the accumulation of variations in solar irradiance dominates the dynamics of global temperature change. A straightforward recurrence matrix representation of the atmosphere/surface/deep ocean system, models temperature changes by (1) the size of a forcing, (2) its duration (due to accumulation of heat), and (3) the depth of forcing in the atmosphere/surface/deep ocean system (due to increasing mixing losses and increasing intrinsic gain with depth). The model can explain most of the rise in temperature since 1950, and more than 70\% of the variance with correct phase shift of the 11-year solar cycle. Global temperature displays the characteristics of an accumulative system over 6 temporal orders of magnitude, as shown by a linear $f^{-1}$ log-log relationship of frequency to the temperature range, and other statistical relationships such as near random-walk and distribution asymmetry. Over the last century, annual global surface temperature rises or falls $0.063\pm 0.028C/W/m^2$ per year when solar irradiance is greater or less than an equilibrium value of $1366W/m^2$ at top-of-atmosphere. Due to an extremely slow characteristic time scale the notion of 'equilibrium climate sensitivity' is largely superfluous. The theory does not require a range of distinctive feedback and lag parameters. Mixing losses attenuate the effectiveness of greenhouse gasses, and the amplification of solar variations by slow accumulation of heat dominates the dynamics of global temperature at all time-scales.
Category: Climate Research