Authors: Danny Kirmse
One of the most significant threats from outer space is a massive celestial object with a path crossing the earth’s solar orbit. It is obvious; from a statistic point of view such an event will be rather unlikely. But it can happen, and the consequences would be dramatic. A threat is always scaled by probability and effect. And in sum it is worth to be prepared, when the probability may be low but the potential expected effect is an extensive destruction of human habitat. In general, there are two different opportunities to impact an asteroid and its orbit. One way is to try to destroy the whole asteroid by conventional or even nuclear explosives. But this procedure involves the risk that the number and sizes of the resulting pieces of the asteroid and their trajectories are almost not calculable. Therefore, it is unpredictable if one is decreasing the risk of an earth impact or even increasing it. The other way is to deflect the orbit of the asteroid and to prevent hereby a crossing with the solar orbit of the earth. Without assessing the chance of success, it seems clear that the approach of deflecting will at least not increase the threat compared with the one of destruction.
Comments: 5 Pages.
[v1] 2019-12-02 14:14:55
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