Geophysics

   

Short-Term Prognosis of Strong Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions According to Daily Indexis of Solar Activity

Authors: A.M.Eigenson, I.B.Bazylevych, M.S.Shevchenko

Recently one of the authors [1-6] has shown that when solar activity curve begins to go down, then in the vicinity of it's minimum earthquakes and volcanic eruptions occur. Analysis of data during the period 2010-2018 shows that the probability of false prognosis is no more 2 %. This feature could be used for forecasting these terrestrial events several days in advance. The "opposite" Forbush effect is proposed as possible reason for explanation of this phenomena. In our days, we see from Fig. 1 that the dangerous area lies between April 22 and May 2, 2019. (Addition: earthquakes 6+ are noted as circle’s, earthquakes 7+ as ellipsis and volcanic eruptions as crosses).

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[v1] 2019-04-22 12:09:56

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