The Intrinsic Value of a Pitch

Authors: Glenn Healey

The deployment of sensors that characterize the trajectory of pitches and batted balls in three dimensions provides the opportunity to assign an intrinsic value to a pitch that depends on its physical properties and not on its observed outcome. We exploit this opportunity by utilizing a Bayesian framework to map five-dimensional PITCHf/x velocity, movement, and location vectors to pitch intrinsic values. HITf/x data is used by the model to obtain intrinsic quality-of-contact values for batted balls that are invariant to the defense, ballpark, and atmospheric conditions. Separate mappings are built to accommodate the effects of count and batter/pitcher handedness. A kernel method is used to generate nonparametric estimates for the component probability density functions in Bayes theorem while cross-validation enables the model to adapt to the size and structure of the data.

Comments: 24 Pages.

Download: PDF

Submission history

[v1] 2017-03-16 12:28:32

Unique-IP document downloads: 267 times is a pre-print repository rather than a journal. Articles hosted may not yet have been verified by peer-review and should be treated as preliminary. In particular, anything that appears to include financial or legal advice or proposed medical treatments should be treated with due caution. will not be responsible for any consequences of actions that result from any form of use of any documents on this website.

Add your own feedback and questions here:
You are equally welcome to be positive or negative about any paper but please be polite. If you are being critical you must mention at least one specific error, otherwise your comment will be deleted as unhelpful.

comments powered by Disqus