Artificial Intelligence

   

Quantitative Prediction of Electoral Vote for United States Presidential Election in 2016

Authors: Gang Xu

In this paper I am reporting the quantitative prediction of the electoral vote for United States presidential election in 2016. This quantitative prediction was based on the Google Trends (GT) data that is publicly available on the internet. A simple heuristic statistical model is applied to analyzing the GT data. This is intended to be an experiment for exploring the plausible dependency between the GT data and the electoral vote result of US presidential elections. The model's performance has also been tested by comparing the predicted results and the actual electoral votes in 2004, 2008 and 2012. For the year 2016, the Google Trends data projects that Mr. Trump will win the white house in landslide. This paper serves as a document to put this exploratory experiment in real test, since the actual election result can be compared to the prediction after tomorrow (November 8, 2016).

Comments: 8 Pages. This work was originally completed by October 22, 2016. The manuscript draft was prepared on November 7, 2016.

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[v1] 2016-11-08 03:33:30

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