Authors: Gang Xu
In this paper I am reporting the quantitative prediction of the electoral vote for United States presidential election in 2016. This quantitative prediction was based on the Google Trends (GT) data that is publicly available on the internet. A simple heuristic statistical model is applied to analyzing the GT data. This is intended to be an experiment for exploring the plausible dependency between the GT data and the electoral vote result of US presidential elections. The model's performance has also been tested by comparing the predicted results and the actual electoral votes in 2004, 2008 and 2012. For the year 2016, the Google Trends data projects that Mr. Trump will win the white house in landslide. This paper serves as a document to put this exploratory experiment in real test, since the actual election result can be compared to the prediction after tomorrow (November 8, 2016).
Comments: 8 Pages. This work was originally completed by October 22, 2016. The manuscript draft was prepared on November 7, 2016.
[v1] 2016-11-08 03:33:30
Unique-IP document downloads: 60 times
Vixra.org is a pre-print repository rather than a journal. Articles hosted may not yet have been verified by peer-review and should be treated as preliminary. In particular, anything that appears to include financial or legal advice or proposed medical treatments should be treated with due caution. Vixra.org will not be responsible for any consequences of actions that result from any form of use of any documents on this website.
Add your own feedback and questions here:
You are equally welcome to be positive or negative about any paper but please be polite. If you are being critical you must mention at least one specific error, otherwise your comment will be deleted as unhelpful.