Random Dynamics of Dikes

Authors: Han Geurdes

Inthis paper, random dynamic systems theory is applied to time series ($\Delta t=5$ minutes) of measurement of water level, $W$, temperature, $T$, and barometric pressure, $P$, in sea dikes. The time series were obtained from DDSC and are part of DMC systems dike maintenance program of the Ommelanderzeedijk in northern Netherlands. The result of numerical analysis of dike $(W,T,P)$ time series is that after the onset of a more or less monotone increase in barometric pressure, an unexpected relatively sharp increase or decrease in water level can occur. The direction of change is related to random factors shortly before the onset of the increase. From numerical study of the time series, we found that $\Delta W_{max}\approx \pm 0.5$ mNAP\footnote{NAP indicates New Amsterdam water level which is a zero determining water level well known in the Netherlands.}. The randomness in the direction of change is most likely explained by the random outcome of two competitive processes shortly before the onset of a continuous barometric pressure increase. The two processes are pore pressure compaction and expulsion of water by air molecules. An important cause of growing barometric pressure increase can be found in pressure subsidence following a decrease in atmospheric temperature. In addition, there is a diurnal atmospheric tide caused by UV radiation fluctuations. This can give an additional $\Delta P_{tide}\approx\pm 0.1$ kPa barometric fluctuation\footnote{1Pa=1Pascal=$1Nm^{-2} \approx 10kg s^{-2}m^{-1}$.} in the mid latitudes ($30^{\circ}N-60^{\circ}N$).

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[v1] 2016-02-05 07:11:51

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