Quantitative Biology


Estimating the PML Risk on Natalizumab: a Simple Approach

Authors: Julian Borchardt

In this short note, we show how to quickly verify the correctness of the estimates of the PML risk on natalizumab established in [Borchardt 2015]. Our approach is simple and elementary in that it requires virtually no knowledge of either statistics or probability theory. For a Kaplan-Meier curve of the PML incidence may be found in [O'Connor et al 2014], based on postmarketing data as of early August 2013, and just using the information from that chart, it is possible to directly derive estimates of the risk of PML in JCV-seropositive natalizumab-treated patients according to prior or no prior immunosuppression. Actually, the resulting figures are almost identical to the ones in [Borchardt 2015], even though the latter were obtained in a very different fashion.

Comments: 7 Pages. The results from this paper have been published in Multiple Sclerosis and Related Disorders (Vol. 8, pp. 145-150, 2016, doi:10.1016/j.msard.2016.03.005). The complete PDF can be downloaded for free from http://authors.elsevier.com/a/1TQWn7skoepyJK

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Submission history

[v1] 2015-08-14 10:06:14
[v2] 2015-08-16 08:50:17

Unique-IP document downloads: 473 times

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